Profit From Agriculture

Posted: Oct 22, 2009 14:54 PM by Sham Gad
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Tickers in this Article: AGU, ADM, CF, BG
Believe it or not, this market rally has not been equally generous to all industries. For some, like the real estate and auto industries, even Mr. Market's unwavering optimism isn't enough to turn the dial.

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Yet one other industry, agriculture, has not experienced the full effects of the market surge. And the long-term fundamentals of the ag industry look stronger than ever.

China, Of Course
With 22% of the world's population, China only commands 8% of the world's arable land and 7% of its water. That mismatch is a big, big deal. For one, China's growth can only succeed if the country can continue to secure food for its people. 

The second major theme supporting a bullish view on agriculture is the desire of developing countries' citizens for a higher quality of life. And nothing signifies an arrival to a better way of life than eating better foods, namely meat and a wider variety of agricultural products. (For more, check out Top 6 Factors That Drive Investment In China.)

Bountiful Future
Such a scenario bodes well for the well-run agricultural plays. What matters, of course, is that these companies create value by earning returns above their cost of capital. Such is an indication that value is being created. 

In Canada, fertilizer giant Agrium (NYSE: AGU) is a name worth knowing. This $9 billion giant currently trades at an earnings multiple of 11, well below the S&P 500 as a whole and less than far inferior businesses.

American names like Bunge (NYSE: BG), Archer Daniels (NYSE: ADM) and CF Industries (NYSE: CF) are also worth a look. Bunge currently trades for 20% of sales, although its balance sheet is loaded with debt. Shares in fertilizer giant CF have been on a tear recently, and it's easy to see why. It's a $4.6 billion company with over $1 billion in net cash, 28% operating margins and a return on equity of over 31%. Still, shares trade at 10 times earnings.

People Must Eat Recessions
Despite the state of the economy, it's hard to paint a grim picture of the agricultural industry over the long term. People have to eat no matter what. And while investing in the agricultural space can encompass a wide spectrum, focusing on companies that have a direct hand in promoting food security looks like a worthwhile consideration. (For further reading, check out Investing In China.)

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By Sham Gad

Sham Gad is the Managing Partner of Gad Partners Fund's, value inspired investment partnerships modeled after the Buffett Partnerships of the 1950's. Previously, Gad ran the Gad Investment Group and delivered annualized returns of 22% from 2002 to 2005. Gad is also the author of "The Business of Value Investing" which will be out in the fall of 2009. Gad earned his MBA at the University of Georgia in May of 2007. Gad runs a value investing blog. He can also be reached by visiting the Gad Partners Funds site. When not writing or analyzing businesses, Gad enjoys hanging out with his wife Maggie, reading, golf, and yoga
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