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Five Big Bears Ready To Roar
Posted: Apr 28, 2008 16:34 PM by Ayton MacEachern
Seemingly large share price declines can often be a small price correction that could be due to many factors, such as overall movement of the industry, sector, or market as a whole. For a long-term investor looking to find an entry point, these short-term price pull backs are often a blessing in disguise.
That said, a serious decline can also be signaling something much worse. In other words, any time one of your stocks takes a plunge to lower price levels, you should probably ask yourself, is there something fundamentally wrong with the underlying company? This is what needs to be explored when looking at a company that has had a bit too much taken off the top at the last visit to the accounting barber. (For further reading, be sure to see our article Surviving Bear Country.)
On that note, here are five stocks that have recently experienced a large one-week decline in share price. By exploring them further, and by trying to determine what caused their drastic declines, we can be in a better position to help predict whether or not the haircuts will continue.
The Bear Cave
|
Company
|
Ticker |
One-Week Loss* |
Community Sentiment |
| AirTran Holdings Inc. |
NYSE:AAI |
34.2% |
33% Bearish |
| United Airlines Corp. |
Nasdaq:UAUA |
33.4% |
40% Bearish |
| Northwest Airlines Corp. |
NYSE:NWA |
22.0% |
33% Bearish |
| Continental Airlines Inc. |
NYSE:CAL |
21.2% |
25% Bearish |
| Horizon Lines |
NYSE:HRZ |
21.1% |
100% Bearish |
| *Data as of market close April 25, 2008 |
Record Oil Prices Keeping Airlines Grounded With the S&P 500 taking on a gain of about 1% last week to close at 1397.84, oil seemed to lead the bullish charge. Oil made some record gains last week, almost breaking $120 a barrel a few times, before closing the week at $118.52. This caused many energy stocks to rise, but did quite the opposite to many airline stocks.
It has been a hard year for transportation stocks, and airlines have felt most of that pain. With air travel being one of the most fuel intensive modes of transportation, companies are seeing their profit margins reduced on a daily basis as oil and gas prices continue to soar.
Only three weeks ago, the airline sector as a whole fell on news of Frontier Airlines’ (Nasdaq:FRNT) bankruptcy. Even with this news, Northwest Airlines (NYSE:NWA) and Delta Airlines (NYSE:DAL) posted gains of 16% and 14.4% respectively. Northwest's stock climbed to $10.96, and Delta closed at $10.01 per share. As you can see in the table above, Northwest's gains have since been erased.
Merger In The Skies Northwest and Delta’s gains a few weeks ago, came from hopes that their merger deal could finally get up in the "air." This deal had been "grounded" since the beginning of 2008 because pilots from both airlines had not been able to compromise on seniority; something that decides the size of their paycheck!
By merging, these two companies are taking a step towards surviving, if not profiting, in a sector that is troubled in many ways. The aim is to become more equipped to combat rising fuel prices by parking older and more expensive aircraft and shutting down hubs that are poor-performers. (Check out our related article The Merger - What To Do When Companies Converge to learn more about how to take advantage of investing before, during and after a merger.)
An agreement was made, solidifying the details of the merger on April 14, 2008, and was detailed in their quarterly report released last Friday. Northwest shares will be exchanged for 1.25 shares of Delta for each share of Northwest. Also disclosed in this report was Northwest's net loss of $6.4 billion for the quarter, including a $6.1 billion charge due to loss of customer goodwill.
Although Northwest has taken some big hits in this last week, with the merger finally going through, profits might begin to pick up. In recent stock picks in the Stock Picking Community, you can see members such as merwyndsilva, and JStojak are waiting for the merger to send these prices back up. I agree with these members, and am hoping that consolidation in the industry will be the answer to the high fuel price woes.
Add Your Two Cents What do you think will happen with the airlines going forward? Will consolidation in the industry create a synergy that will help profit margins bounce back? Be sure to join me (aytonmm) in the FREE Stock Picking Community to share your thoughts and see what other investors are saying.
By Ayton MacEachern
Ayton MacEachern is an Equity Trader, previously working as the Senior Financial Editor at Investopedia.com. After receiving his bachelor's degree in financial services from Mount Royal College in Calgary, Alberta, MacEachern began his career at an international securities trading firm. MacEachern has worked in a variety of roles in the financial industry, including workers' compensation insurance underwriting, financial planning, and equity, currency and options trading. MacEachern is also Co-Founder of theskipper.ca, a source for online outdoor education.
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