Consolidation Boosts Chemical Sector

Posted: Jul 16, 2008 11:53 AM by Matthew McCall
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Tickers in this Article: DD, ROH, DOW, ASH, OMG, HPC, BAK

Two multi-billion-dollar deals took place in the chemical sector last week. Could this be just the beginning of a new consolidation phase for the chemical stocks? If so, now is the time to buy into the sector as large premiums are paid for undervalued companies.

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The Done Deals
Dow Chemical
(NYSE:DOW) made an offer for Rohm & Haas (NYSE:ROH) worth approximately $15.3 billion, the second biggest chemical merger ever and the third largest overall deal this year in the U.S. The news of the buyout sent Rohm & Haas' stock up 64% on July 10 as Dow fell 4% on the session.

The other deal in the chemical sector was not nearly as large, though it was a sizable merger considering the economic environment. One day after the Dow-Rohm deal was announced, Ashland (NYSE:ASH) agreed to purchase Hercules (NYSE:HPC) for $18.50/cash and 0.094 shares of ASH, valuing the deal at $2.6 billion. On the day of the announcement, July 11, Hercules stock gained 26% and Ashland fell 13%. Clearly the market thinks Ashland made a mistake.

Who is Next?
Both Hercules and Rohm & Haas are considered specialty chemical companies that make anything from additives for everyday products, such as paint, to materials used in the semiconductor industry. The diversity of their businesses makes the sector somewhat recession-proof because the need for their chemicals will always be there. Staying along the lines of that thought process; I have come up with a few names in the sector that look interesting from a valuation and business perspective. (To learn more, check out Trademarks Of A Takeover Target.)

  • Braskem (NYSE:BAK)
    This Brazilian company is South America's largest petrochemical company. Braskem operates approximately 20 chemical plants that make a variety of products, including chemicals used to make plastics. The company is also two years away from opening a plant that will produce "green plastics". The company calls these plastics "green" because the entire process is powered by sugarcane. Dow Chemical also plans to open a similar plant in 2011 in Brazil. With energy prices so high, the movement from relying on fossil fuels to sugar makes perfect sense. From a Fundamental perspective, Braskem's stock is trading with a P/E ratio of 22, above the industry average of around 16, but, with growth more than four-times that of the industry, this P/E is warranted. (To learn about chemical companies awash eco-friendly language, read The Green Marketing Machine.)

  • OM Group (NYSE:OMG) ,
    OM Group supplies a large number of industries with metal-based specialty chemicals. It offers over 1,200 products to about 2,000 customers, making it a diverse firm that can weather sector slowdowns. Fundamentally, OM Group is undervalued compared to its competitors with a P/E ratio of 5. From a technical perspective, the stock is typically not the type that I would discuss. Since early May the stock has fallen 50% and is now at the lowest level since 2006.

  • DuPont (NYSE:DD)
    This giant is not likely a takeover candidate because the company is already the third largest chemical company in the U.S., but from a valuation point of view, DuPont could be attractive to value investors. After hitting a new 2008 high in April, the stock has fallen more than 20% to the lowest level in over a year. The P/E ratio of 12 is below the industry average of 16. Also consider the company not only has exposure to the specialty chemical sector, but also the booming agricultural chemical business. Finally, there is the 4.0% annual dividend yield to consider. (Find out more on value investing in Stock-Picking Strategies: Value Investing.)


Buying on Takeover Speculation

One strategy I will never give my blessing to is buying a stock purely as a takeover candidate. Unless you have information you should not have, the odds of you picking a stock that gets bought is very low. That said, if you believe in a stock fundamentally and technically and there is a slim chance of more takeovers in the sector, then you have the green light to buy. The takeover potential is merely a bonus.

To learn more, check out our Mergers and Acquisitions Tutorial.


By Matthew McCall

Matthew McCall is the president of Penn Financial Group, LLC, a registered investment advisor. He also publishes two newsletters, The ETF Bulletin and The PFG Letter as well as other educational material. As a registered investment advisor, he manages clients' investments based on their specific goals and objectives.
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